Netflix (NFLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Netflix's subscription growth in 2025 reached over 325 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by strategic initiatives such as the crackdown on password sharing and the introduction of a lower-priced ad-supported tier. The average revenue per member rose nearly 6% year-over-year, which, combined with a significant growth in advertising revenue—2.5 times year-on-year to $1.5 billion—underscores the company’s successful diversification beyond traditional subscription fees. Additionally, reported revenues increased by 17.6% year-over-year, surpassing the company's guidance, indicating strong financial momentum and positive prospects for continued growth.

The financial analysis reveals that Netflix's quarterly revenue from the APAC region was $1.42 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase but falling 2% short of estimates, while the average revenue per user (ARPU) declined by 4% year-over-year to $7.08. Additionally, the company's guidance indicates a concerning slowdown in revenue growth, forecasting a drop from 17% to 12% for FY26, alongside increased expenses attributed to content spending and operational costs, which will pressure margins further. Lastly, challenges in regulatory approvals in key markets are expected to hinder pricing strategies, raising the risk of revenue misses and contributing to a more negative outlook for future growth and financial performance.