Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nasdaq has demonstrated robust financial growth, highlighted by a 17% year-over-year increase in Index revenue, largely fueled by a 25% rise in average Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) Assets Under Management (AUM), which amounted to approximately $663 billion. The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by around 9% year-over-year, with Software as a Service (SaaS) revenues rising by 12% year-over-year, which emphasizes the significance of the SaaS model that contributes 37% of total ARR. Moreover, Nasdaq's focus on the Capital Access Platform, bolstered by a healthy capital markets environment and a strengthening pipeline, positions the company for continued growth, while the improvement in its gross leverage ratio to 3.2x reflects strong free cash flow generation and effective debt management.

The negative outlook on Nasdaq's stock is primarily driven by concerns over a potential 10% reduction in fiscal year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) due to a slower recovery in capital market activities, including diminished initial public offerings (IPOs) and underwhelming growth in the newly integrated segment from Adenza. Additionally, significant risks include continued subdued IPO markets, elevated company delistings, and challenges in integrating key acquisitions like AxiomSL and Calypso, further compounded by regulatory uncertainties that may delay client decision-making. These factors collectively point to a precarious operating environment, likely resulting in lower trading volumes and heightened market pressures, which may adversely affect Nasdaq's financial performance.