Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nasdaq demonstrated a robust financial performance with a notable 17% year-over-year increase in Index revenue, driven by a 25% rise in average ETP assets under management, reaching approximately $663 billion. The company also reported a solid annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth rate of around 9%, with SaaS revenue growing by 12% and contributing significantly to total ARR. Furthermore, Nasdaq's Capital Access Platform showed resilience with a 6% year-over-year ARR increase, supported by a healthy capital markets environment, positioning the company for continued growth as macroeconomic stability improves.

The financial analysis indicates a negative outlook for Nasdaq's stock primarily due to a projected 10% reduction in FY26E EPS, stemming from a slower recovery in capital markets activity, particularly in IPOs, alongside underperformance from the Adenza segment affecting debt paydown. Key risks contributing to this outlook include ongoing subdued IPO markets, declining trading volumes, challenges in integrating new acquisitions, and potential market pressures from regulatory uncertainty, particularly concerning a proposed financial transaction tax in the European Union. These factors collectively suggest a fragile financial environment for Nasdaq, posing significant challenges to its growth and operational performance.