nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ncino Inc. is projected to achieve revenue in FY26 between $591.9 million and $593.4 million, reflecting a modest increase from previous estimates and underscoring a positive growth trajectory. The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) of $0.90 to $0.91 represents a significant rise from earlier estimates, highlighting the company's improving profitability alongside a projected subscription revenue of $520 million to $522 million, demonstrating approximately 7% year-over-year organic growth. Furthermore, the company’s recent quarterly performance, with a 9.6% increase in total revenue and a consistent rise in subscription revenue, indicates strong demand for its innovative financial software solutions as institutions increasingly seek to modernize their operations.

Ncino Inc. is facing a challenging outlook due to slowed U.S. mortgage growth, which has been reported at just 2% year-over-year, indicating a potential deceleration in revenue growth and an expected compression of the enterprise value-to-revenue multiple. The company is also at risk from increased competition that may lead to pricing pressures, coupled with a prolonged economic downturn and low interest rates likely diminishing bank profit margins, thus increasing pressure on client IT spending. Additionally, rising inflation and sustained investments for growth have contributed to Ncino not achieving profitability, while ongoing mortgage headwinds are anticipated to persist throughout FY27.