National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

National CineMedia is poised for growth as a rebound in movie attendance is expected to enhance advertiser interest, leading to increased ad bookings starting in Q3 2025. The company has significantly enhanced its targeting capabilities and optimization for local campaigns, which could facilitate market share gains over the next two years. Additionally, National CineMedia is strategically positioned to attract advertising dollars shifting from traditional mediums to more targeted cinema advertising, while also focusing on shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.

National CineMedia Inc. is facing a negative outlook due to revised guidance for fourth-quarter revenue, projected at $91.0-98.0 million, which is below previous forecasts despite indicating nearly 10% growth at the midpoint. Furthermore, anticipated headwinds from the AMC renewal are expected to significantly impact EBITDA margins by 150-250 basis points, with the potential for off-setting benefits from inventory harmonization remaining uncertain. Additionally, despite a projected 30% year-over-year increase in attendance, a significant decrease of 20% in per attendee revenue, driven by a softer film slate and misalignment of box office strength with typical advertising expenditures, raises further concerns about financial performance.