National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

National CineMedia Inc. is poised for growth as cinema attendance rebounds, presenting opportunities for increased advertising bookings starting in Q3 2025, which should enhance overall revenue. The company has improved its ad targeting and servicing, particularly for local campaigns, which positions it well to capture market share in a shifting advertising landscape favoring cinema over traditional mediums like linear TV. Additionally, National CineMedia’s commitment to returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, combined with a compelling valuation story following recent share price declines, underscores a positive outlook for the company's financial future.

National CineMedia's fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $91.0-98.0 million falls below previous forecast expectations, signaling growth of nearly 10% at the midpoint, which may not be sufficient given current market dynamics. The anticipated headwinds associated with the AMC renewal are projected to impact EBITDA margins negatively by 150-250 basis points, despite efforts to harmonize inventory to generate additional revenue. Furthermore, while attendance is expected to rise 30% year-over-year, a significant decline of 20% in per attendee revenue coupled with a softer film slate raises concerns about the sustainability of revenue growth.