Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences has demonstrated robust financial growth, with Ingrezza achieving a 10% quarter-over-quarter and 12% year-over-year increase in sales, setting a record for both new and total prescriptions. The company is strategically expanding its sales force by approximately 30%, aimed at enhancing the adoption of Ingrezza while concurrently expanding its prescriber base for Crenessity, which has shown impressive sales performance of $98 million in Q3 against a consensus estimate of $67 million. The investment thesis suggests a potential trajectory for Ingrezza to reach around $3 billion in sales by 2028 and for Crenessity to surpass $1 billion in revenues by 2030, supported by a diverse pipeline of late-stage and early-stage assets.

Neurocrine Biosciences faces significant competitive risks that could negatively impact its revenue, particularly for its leading product, Ingrezza, which may experience a slowdown in growth due to an already saturated market and the introduction of new competitors. Additionally, the launch of Crenessity has not demonstrated sustainable sales growth, raising concerns about the potential for it to achieve projected sales benchmarks amidst growing competition and other market challenges. Moreover, ongoing pricing pressure related to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the uncertainties surrounding the company's advanced products, which have demonstrated mixed results in clinical trials, further contribute to a cautious outlook on the stock.