Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. is poised for significant growth driven by the increasing patient population for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, with a noted rise of 3,000 patients since 2018, highlighting unmet medical needs in this area. The company's management remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Ingrezza, particularly given that a majority of tardive dyskinesia patients are yet to be treated with VMAT2 inhibitors and the expanding use of antipsychotics is expected to boost demand. Furthermore, the upcoming pivotal clinical programs in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia, along with anticipated Phase II and III readouts, are likely to serve as pivotal catalysts for future growth.

Neurocrine Biosciences faces a negative outlook primarily due to the company's lower-than-expected sales guidance for Ingrezza, projected at $2.5-2.6 billion for FY25, which falls short of consensus estimates and suggests a deceleration in revenue growth driven by increased competitive pressures and complex payer dynamics. Additionally, the 4Q24 sales of Ingrezza, reported at approximately $615 million, were marginally below both consensus and internal forecasts, indicating stagnation in quarter-over-quarter growth. The revised total revenue assumption for the end of 2025 has been decreased from $2,846 million to $2,648 million, further underscoring the challenges the company is facing in achieving its financial targets.