Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences has demonstrated strong financial performance, highlighted by a 10% quarter-over-quarter and 12% year-over-year growth in Ingrezza sales, which reached a record high in both new and total prescriptions. The company's strategic expansion of its sales force by approximately 30% aims to bolster the adoption of Ingrezza and broaden its prescriber base for Crenessity, which has already shown impressive net product sales of $98 million in Q3, surpassing consensus estimates. With expectations for Ingrezza to potentially reach ~$3 billion in sales by 2028 and Crenessity targeting peak revenues exceeding $1 billion by 2030, Neurocrine Biosciences is positioned for meaningful long-term growth driven by a robust pipeline and favorable market dynamics.

Neurocrine Biosciences faces significant competition risks that threaten the growth of its flagship product, Ingrezza, particularly in the market for tardive dyskinesia, where market penetration efforts may not lead to sustained revenue increase. Sales projections for Crenessity have not met expectations, with concerns about the durability of its launch and the potential for rapid plateauing due to new competitors and other market factors impacting patient compliance. Additionally, anticipated pricing pressures from the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as competing products in related conditions, could exacerbate revenue declines for Ingrezza, making for a challenging outlook for the company as it navigates its product pipeline and market dynamics.