Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences is poised for long-term growth driven by increasing patient diagnoses, particularly in classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), where the patient population has grown by 3,000 since 2018, reflecting heightened demand for its therapies. The company reported a non-GAAP net earnings per share of approximately $1.69 for 4Q23, indicating resilience despite competitive pressures, with management expressing confidence in the continued market expansion of INGREZZA given that a significant majority of tardive dyskinesia patients remain untreated. Furthermore, the anticipated pivotal programs and ongoing research initiatives in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia suggest a robust pipeline that could enhance the company's growth trajectory in the coming years.

Neurocrine Biosciences faces a negative outlook primarily attributed to its lowered sales guidance for Ingrezza in FY25, projected at $2.5-2.6 billion, which reflects anticipated challenges in market dynamics, including competitive pressures and stricter payer management. In addition, recent sales figures for Ingrezza were disappointing, with 4Q24 revenues of approximately $615 million falling short of both consensus and internal estimates, indicating a deceleration in revenue growth. Furthermore, the company's overall revenue assumption for year-end 2025 was revised downwards from $2,846 million to $2,648 million, highlighting ongoing struggles to boost sales amidst a complex healthcare environment.