Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. demonstrates a positive outlook driven by robust patient demand and a significant expansion of its sales force by approximately 30%, aimed at enhancing the growth of its lead product, Ingrezza, and broadening its reach among endocrinologists. The company reported impressive quarterly results for Ingrezza, with a 10% quarter-over-quarter and 12% year-over-year growth, achieving record highs in both new and total prescriptions, while Crenessity also exceeded sales expectations with net product sales of $98 million for Q3. Additionally, the strong growth trajectory in the VMAT2 market, alongside a pipeline that includes late-stage assets, positions Neurocrine for meaningful long-term growth, reinforcing the belief in its potential to reach approximately $3 billion in Ingrezza sales by 2028 and over $1 billion for Crenessity by 2030.

Neurocrine Biosciences faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook, primarily stemming from competitive pressures that threaten the growth potential of its flagship product, Ingrezza. The existing market for Huntington's disease chorea is already limited, with two competitors present, while the recent launch of Crenessity has not demonstrated sustainable sales growth, raising concerns about its long-term viability and revenue projections. Additionally, anticipated pricing pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act and emerging competition in the congenital adrenal hyperplasia market further compounds the risks to Neurocrine's revenue stability and overall profitability.