NBIS Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nebius Group is viewed favorably because its vertically integrated, AI-native cloud platform pairs scarce GPU capacity with strong engineering talent, enabling it to capture pricing power from both 1- to 3-year contracts at $20M-$25M per MW and shorter 3- to 6-month deals at $40M-$50M per MW. Its fundamentals are strengthened by rapid scale, with Q2 revenue of $582M, 454% year-over-year growth, a $3.0B core run-rate, adjusted EBITDA margins of 41%, and committed backlog above $40B, while contracted power guidance has been raised to over 5GW. The September 2025 Microsoft agreement for $17B, plus asset-light and non-dilutive financing via customer prepayments and the $775M secured debt raise, supports a large, visible path to revenue expansion and medium-term 20%-30% adjusted EBIT margins.

Nebius Group is viewed negatively because its ambitious AI cloud buildout requires extreme capital spending, with guided capex of $20B-$25B this year against just $3.0B-$3.4B of revenue, and the company may need substantial debt or equity to fund more than 1 GW of annual capacity additions. Execution risk is also high because revenue depends on timely GPU procurement, construction, commissioning, and customer acceptance, while internal control weaknesses over fixed assets raise concern about asset tracking and depreciation accuracy. Even with strong growth assumptions, profitability remains fragile, as the base case still shows -28% adjusted operating margins in 2026E and continued losses in 2027E, while over 80% of backlog may be tied to Microsoft and Meta amid intensifying hyperscaler competition.