NBIS Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nebius Group is favored because it combines scarce AI compute capacity with strong pricing power, evidenced by 2Q26 revenue of $582.3 million, 454% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 40.6%. Its outlook is reinforced by a rapidly scaling contracted base—more than 5 GW of contracted power, over $40 billion of committed backlog, and customer prepayments expected to exceed $9 billion in 2026—while a multiyear $17 billion Microsoft agreement adds major long-dated visibility. The company’s vertically integrated, globally diversified footprint, high utilization economics, and ability to finance growth through prepayments, secured debt, and equity support a path to durable margin expansion and sustained hypergrowth.

Nebius Group is burdened by extreme capital intensity, with 2Q26 free cash flow negative $3.41 billion, first-half free cash flow negative $3.63 billion, and capex guided at $20 billion to $25 billion for this year against revenue guidance of only $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion. Its growth depends on a risky buildout of more than 1 GW of annual capacity, while net property and equipment jumped to $13.05 billion at June 30 from $5.55 billion at year-end 2025, implying heavy ongoing funding needs and likely external financing. The stock also faces concentrated dependence on NVIDIA and a small set of suppliers, plus customer concentration, regulatory pushback, and execution risk, even after Microsoft’s September 2025 multiyear $17 billion agreement.