Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vail Resorts is viewed favorably because its stock trades in the bottom third of its historical 6-21x one-year forward EV/EBITDA range, creating an attractive risk/reward profile supported by a strong balance sheet and steady return of capital. The company also benefits from structural supply-demand advantages, including near-zero new ski resort supply, a high-income customer base, and oligopolistic multi-resort passes that support continued pricing power, especially for the Epic Pass above inflation. Despite near-term uncertainty from historically low 2025/26 snowfall, early resort closures in Australia, and concerns around Epic Pass sales, consensus appears de-risked and FY27 Resort Adj. EBITDA could still see upside from mix shift toward higher-margin non-pass lift revenue.

Vail Resorts is facing a negative fundamental setup because pass sales are slowing, with 2026/2027 units and sales dollars now tracking down approximately 12% and 8% year over year, while the company itself cited weak skier sentiment after poor snow conditions last season. FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $795 million to $861 million, with a midpoint of $828 million, lands slightly below consensus, and the projected 26.9% Resort EBITDA margin remains below expectations as inflationary pressures outpace ancillary revenue growth and efficiency savings. Additional pressure comes from a challenging Australia ski season, where Falls Creek and Mt Hotham closed about 4 weeks early and Perisher operated at less than 50% lift capacity through peak season, reinforcing a softer earnings backdrop.