Merck (MRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Merck & Co is well positioned because its growth story is no longer reliant on Keytruda alone: positive Phase 3 readouts for intismeran autogene, sacituzumab tirumotecan, tulisokibart, and long-acting HIV assets materially improve the odds of sustained worldwide revenue growth through 2028 to 2032, even in a bearish Keytruda scenario. The company’s oncology execution, vaccine franchises, and broader human health base—especially the 53% of 2025 sales generated from US human health—provide a durable commercial foundation, while expected milestones in 4Q26, including $150MM, add near-term revenue support. At the same time, management’s push into higher-value cardiopulmonary, infectious disease, and animal health assets suggests Merck can offset Keytruda loss-of-exclusivity and still deliver mid-single-digit earnings growth through the end of the decade.

Merck & Co is weighed down by heavy dependence on Keytruda just as generic competition threatens Bridion, Januiva, and Adempas and multiple pipeline assets must replace declining oncology revenues. The company also faces execution risk across launches such as Ohtuvayre, Winrevair, Capvaxive, and Lipfendra, while clinical setbacks in intismeran, sac-TMT, tulisokibart, or MK-1406 could sharply damage investor confidence and valuation. Financially, modest 2027 topline growth is expected, but rising interest expense from debt issued this year, mid-high-single-digit R&D growth, and U.S. pricing and tariff pressure may compress earnings and limit multiple expansion.