Merck (MRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Merck & Co is viewed favorably because its core franchises remain resilient while new growth drivers are emerging across oncology, vaccines, cardiopulmonary disease, and infectious diseases. Keytruda still anchors the business, but strong pipeline momentum from sac-TMT, intismeran autogene, tulisokibart, Winrevair, and Ohtuvayre supports confidence that Merck can grow through the Keytruda loss of exclusivity, especially with 53% of 2025 sales coming from US human health. The outlook is further strengthened by seasonal Gardasil demand, a deep late-stage portfolio, and meaningful other revenues expected to be significantly higher in 2H26, though the stock’s near-top peer-group valuation means execution on clinical readouts and business development is crucial.

Merck & Co is facing a negative setup because its 2027 growth profile looks modest at just 2.4% versus 5% consensus, while EPS is seen at $8.83 versus $9.37 as operating expenses rise mid-to-high single digits to fund launches and a broader late-stage pipeline. Keytruda, the core earnings driver, is slowing and now faces added pressure from higher German rebates to 15.5% and price-volume agreements, while Januvia/Janumet continues to erode with TRx down about 57% year over year and generic competition after IRA pricing took effect. Although new brands like Winrevair, Welireg, and Capvaxive are growing, they may not fully offset LOE gaps, and pipeline dependence leaves the stock vulnerable to trial setbacks or weaker commercialization.