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MPC
Volume: 3.09K

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Analyst Ratings

Based on 15 analyst ratings
Buy
Strong Buy 20%
Buy 47%
Hold 33%
Sell 0%
Strong Sell 0%

Bulls say

Marathon Petroleum is supported by strong refining capture, advantaged crude sourcing, and yield improvements that lifted 2025 to ~105% capture and 1H26 to ~108%, with 2Q posting a 112% result despite derivative noise. Its financial flexibility is exceptional, with ~$10B+ of CFO, parent cash of $6.7B, and only ~2% net debt to capital, giving it room to resume large share repurchases while maintaining balance-sheet strength. The outlook is further reinforced by MPLX, whose ~64%-owned distribution already covers parent dividend and capex needs, while refining projects, renewable diesel improvement, and midstream growth create multiple paths to higher cash generation.

Bears say

Marathon Petroleum is facing a negative setup because its earnings remain highly exposed to volatile refining spreads, weak regional market conditions, and the risk of tighter crude differentials or higher oil prices compressing margins. Despite trading around 5.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA, below its roughly 6x 3-year average, the stock still looks vulnerable as downside risks include slower US natural gas/NGL supply growth, a sooner-than-expected reopening of the SoH, and buybacks below expectations. Operationally, 1Q26 had the company’s lowest 1Q with unplanned downtime this decade, while maintenance, planned Renewable Diesel downtime, and a $63MM MPLX derivative headwind further pressure near-term fundamentals.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has been analyzed by 15 analysts, with a consensus rating of Buy. 20% of analysts recommend a Strong Buy, 47% recommend Buy, 33% suggest Holding, 0% advise Selling, and 0% predict a Strong Sell.

This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Marathon Petroleum and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.

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FAQs About Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Forecast

Analysts have given Marathon Petroleum (MPC) a Buy based on their latest research and market trends.

According to 15 analysts, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has a Buy consensus rating as of Oct 9, 2026. This rating is provided by third-party analysts and is not investment advice from Public.com.

Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $383.80, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price.

Financial analysts have set a price target of $383.80, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated based on market conditions, earnings reports, and industry trends. This prediction is provided by third-party analysts and is not investment advice from Public.com.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

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