MP Materials (MP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MP Materials Corp. is strategically positioned to benefit from rising rare earth prices, particularly given its substantial exposure to neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) pricing, which is expected to strengthen in the market. The company has established a partnership with the Department of Defense that allows for shared financial upside should market prices exceed $110 per kilogram, enhancing potential revenue streams while aligning with national security interests. Furthermore, MP Materials anticipates significant upside potential as it allocates capacity to third-party defense and commercial customers, thereby assuring robust EBITDA growth beyond guaranteed levels.

MP Materials Corp faces a negative outlook primarily due to concerns regarding the long-term supply of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), which may hinder the adoption of technologies that rely on rare earth magnets. The lack of a secure and reliable upstream and midstream source for magnet feedstock further complicates efforts to achieve a self-sufficient rare earth magnet supply chain in the U.S. and Western markets. Additionally, the potential exploration of alternative technologies and changes in battery chemistry could detract from the company's market position and affect application-specific performance metrics.