Mosaic (MOS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mosaic is supported by improving fundamentals across phosphate, potash, and Brazil, with recent transformation initiatives driving better operating efficiency, lower costs, and rising cash flow. Phosphate operations should benefit from reliability enhancements and equipment refreshes, with a return to 7-8Mt annual run-rate targeted, while the Esterhazy hydrofloat project should add 400Kt of low-cost potash capacity and more higher-priced granular product. Those operating gains, combined with expected cash generation of $0.3B/$0.7B in 2026/2027 and potential Ma'aden monetization worth $1.3-1.9B, strengthen the long-term outlook.

Mosaic is facing a prolonged phosphate recovery that could stretch into mid-2027, with higher re-start risk as idled assets remain offline and consensus for 2027 sales of 7.1Mt appearing too optimistic versus RBCe’s 6.5Mt. Delayed capex also suppresses near-term cash generation, as 2026 capex was cut to $1.2B from $1.5B and RBC expects only about a 2% FCF yield in 2026/2027 before normalization in 2028. Although potash markets are moderately supportive, RBC still lowered 2027 EBITDA to $1.9B from a $2.1B consensus and highlighted elevated sulphur, technical restart, and Brazil-related challenges that pressure valuation.