Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Molina Healthcare's positive outlook is supported by substantial growth in marketplace utilization, reflected by a remarkable 10.2% quarter-over-quarter increase in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR), which reached 95.6% in the third quarter of 2025. Additionally, the company has shown significant improvement in Medicare Advantage (MA) MLR, stepping up 360 basis points to 93.6%, indicating strong operational performance and potential for enhanced profitability. With guidance anticipating a trend increase to 15% for Medicaid margins, there are promising indicators for continued growth in both membership and financial performance across its key markets.

Molina Healthcare's recent financial performance highlights significant challenges, with 4Q25 EPS falling $3 short of expectations at ($2.75), largely due to Medicaid retroactive items and ongoing trend pressures. The company anticipates year-over-year margin compression in its Medicaid segment, projected to drop to 1.2% in 2026, which is in stark contrast to the more stable margins of its peers. Additionally, the expected decline of 2.6% in Medicaid membership, coupled with pressures from the Marketplace, raises concerns about the sustainability of Molina's earnings and growth trajectory moving forward.