Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Molina Healthcare demonstrated strong performance in its Medicare segment, with membership and revenue exceeding expectations, contributing to a medical care ratio (MCR) of 90.0%, which showed an increase of approximately 170 basis points sequentially due to heightened utilization among acute populations. The company’s Medicaid MCR also reflected an increase, rising to 91.3%, influenced by ongoing utilization pressures and exceeding management’s forecasts; this metrics improvement highlights Molina's capacity to navigate challenges in the healthcare landscape effectively. Furthermore, Molina's Marketplace utilization surged to unprecedented levels in 3Q25, with a notable increase in the MCR, underscoring a robust demand for its insurance offerings and a positive trajectory for future growth.

Molina Healthcare's outlook has significantly declined, with worsening trends for the 2025 and 2026 marketplace primarily due to elevated medical cost pressures affecting all business lines. The company's 2025 adjusted EPS estimates have been lowered to $19.02, down from expectations of at least $19.00, while broader pressures from Medicaid and marketplacesegments have pushed estimates for 2025 to $14.02 amidst a shrinking market. Furthermore, over half of Molina's enrollees come from Medicaid contracts in just four states, heightening the risk associated with potential regulatory and reimbursement changes in these key markets.