ModivCare (MODV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

ModivCare Inc. has demonstrated a positive trend in its NEMT services, with utilization increasing by 192 basis points to 10.8%, indicating strong demand for its transportation offerings. Additionally, the company's personal care segment (PCS) achieved a 3.0% growth in service revenue, driven by a rise in revenue per hour, while the adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 65 basis points year-over-year to 9.4%. Management anticipates ongoing operational efficiencies and increased revenue from fee-for-service contracts, which are projected to constitute around 25% of NEMT's revenue mix, contributing to a stable financial outlook moving forward.

ModivCare Inc. experiences significant financial challenges as reflected in its recent performance metrics, particularly within its NEMT segment, which is projected to see a top-line decline of approximately 6.7% in 2025 due to a $200 million revenue headwind from contract attrition. Adjusted EBITDA for the RPM segment fell short of estimates at $6.8 million, leading to softer margins of about 35.4%. Additionally, a 5.3% decline in remote monitoring revenue and a 7.4% drop in revenue from the Matrix business underscore the company's struggles amid ongoing contract losses and heightened operational pressures.