monday.com (MNDY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Monday.Com is supported by strong underlying demand, as 2Q revenue rose 22% year over year to about $364 million and cRPO increased 27%, while the enterprise business continued to drive growth with 4,834 $50k+ ARR customers, 2,019 $100k+ customers, and 114 $500k+ customers. Its outlook is further strengthened by improving profitability, with FY26 operating margin guidance raised to roughly 16% and free cash flow margin expected at 19%-20%, helped by about $100 million in annualized savings and disciplined reinvestment into talent, product, and enterprise go-to-market. The most compelling fundamental catalyst is accelerating AI and upmarket momentum: AI ARR doubled quarter over quarter to roughly $20 million, represented 17% of NNARR, and new products now account for 11.6% of total ARR, indicating expanding monetization and a broader platform opportunity.

Monday.Com is facing a negative fundamental setup because its 2Q revenue beat did not translate into a better FY26 outlook, as management kept revenue growth at 19%-20% while trimming 2H expectations and guiding 3Q revenue below Street consensus. NRR fell to 109% and is now expected to end FY26 at 108%, signaling softer multi-product expansion and tier upgrades just as pricing tailwinds roll off, while billings growth of 14% lagged estimates and adjusted FCF declined to $52.3M from $64.1M. At the same time, the company is navigating a 20% workforce reduction, AI and product reallocation, and a still-nascent direct sales motion in a highly competitive market, leaving execution risk, margin pressure, and share volatility elevated.