MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MGM Resorts International is supported by a premier Las Vegas Strip franchise, with 37,000 guest rooms and suites and properties that generated about 56% of 2025 EBITDAR, while its US regional assets and MGM China added diversified cash flow and resilience. Its digital arm is also improving the quality of earnings: BetMGM grew 3Q26 net revenue 7% to $710m and EBITDA 112% to $86m, with management guiding FY26 toward the lower end of $2.9-3.1bn of revenue and $300-350m of EBITDA while aiming for $500m longer term. The market appears to underappreciate MGM’s asset mix and growth options, as the stock trades at a steep sum-of-the-parts discount versus peers, even before assigning meaningful value to Japan.

MGM Resorts International is facing a negative fundamental setup as its core Las Vegas franchise, despite contributing approximately 56% of 2025 EBITDAR, is exposed to continued softness and a more competitive promotional environment that can pressure margins across its 37,000 rooms and suites. Its US regional assets, Macao operations, and high-single-digit revenue exposure to US sports and i-gaming do provide diversification, but online market share is becoming more expensive to maintain amid growing prediction market threats, limiting incremental profitability. With MGM China still representing meaningful earnings and a Japan resort not expected until 2030, the company lacks near-term catalysts to offset persistent operating pressure and rising customer-acquisition costs.