Manulife Financial (MFC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Manulife Financial is favored because its earnings mix is increasingly anchored by higher-growth Asia and fee-based Global Wealth and Asset Management, which together delivered stronger-than-expected Q2/26 results and helped lift core EPS to $1.09 and core ROE to 16.3%. The company also strengthened its balance sheet and risk profile, with a stable 136% opco LICAT ratio, BVPS of $27.48, and a third LTC reinsurance deal that should reduce cumulative LTC morbidity risk by about 24% once the expected Q4/26 close occurs. With around CAD 1.2 trillion of assets under management and administration as of the end of June 2026, plus reaffirmed 18%+ core ROE aspirations by 2027, the fundamental case is supported by scale, diversification, and capital relief.

Manulife Financial is pressured by inconsistent core insurance performance, as $76 million of core insurance experience losses widened from $38 million a year earlier, with weaker Canada and Asia claims only partly offset by better U.S. experience. It also faces earnings volatility in GWAM and Canada, where Q2/26 core EPS of $1.06 fell short of $1.10, asset flows remained mixed with U.S. net outflows of $1.0 billion and Canada outflows of $2.3 billion, and average AUM was about 1% below expectations. Although Asia and the U.S. posted quarterly beats and LTC reinsurance reduced reserves by 18%, the company still carries valuation drag from legacy LTC risk, moderate leverage at 22.5%, and exposure to weaker market, regulatory, and Asia-related macro conditions.