MetLife (MET) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MetLife is positioned for durable fundamental strength because its scale, diversified mix, and disciplined execution support earnings growth that can outpace revenue, aided by AI-driven efficiencies and operating leverage. Its U.S. Group Benefits and RIS franchises together contribute about 52% of 2025 adjusted earnings, while Asia adds roughly 25% and Latin America about 14% of 2024 earnings, giving the company multiple growth engines with relatively low macro sensitivity. The business mix is shifting toward higher-ROE, capital-light segments, and with adjusted ROE at 16% in 2025 and 17% in 1H26, the company appears well positioned to sustain attractive profitability and capital returns.

MetLife is vulnerable to earnings volatility because its investment portfolio and alternative asset returns can swing with market conditions, and a reversal of the strong variable investment tailwinds seen in 2Q26 could quickly pressure results. Its profitability is also exposed to lower long-term interest rates, credit spread changes, and slower wage or employment growth, which could weaken pension risk transfer activity, increase liability instability, and hurt the company’s core US franchises that drive about 52% of 2025 adjusted earnings. In addition, heavy exposure to international markets and intense global competition raise the risk of FX headwinds, regulatory pressure, fee compression, and mortality normalization, which could undermine the Asia, Latin America, and EMEA earnings base.