Methanex (MEOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Methanex Corp has demonstrated a notable increase in production, achieving 839,000 metric tons in Q4/24, up from 605,000 metric tons in Q3/24, primarily driven by enhanced output from its Geismar 3 plant, which has successfully commenced operations. The company's revenue outlook appears promising, influenced by a slight uptick in North America methanol prices and favorable changes in the regional sales mix following its acquisition of OCI's methanol assets, expected to bolster average selling prices (ASP) in the mid-term. Additionally, operational improvements and stabilization in gas balances within production regions, along with projected ASPs reaching $395 to $400 per metric ton for Q1, contribute to a more optimistic financial forecast for Methanex.

The analysis of Methanex Corp's financial prospects reveals several fundamental concerns contributing to a negative outlook on its stock. A significant reduction in production forecasts, with anticipated equity metrics dropping to approximately 7.5 million metric tons for 2025 due to extensive turnaround schedules, raises questions about efficiency and output sustainability. Additionally, external factors such as declining methanol prices, heightened geopolitical tensions affecting production in Iran, and economic instability in key regions further exacerbate uncertainties in the global methanol supply chain, potentially impacting revenue and profitability.