MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MercadoLibre's strong market position in Latin America is underscored by its extensive user base of approximately 150 million active users and over 600 million active listings, which provide a solid foundation for growth across 18 countries. The company has demonstrated substantial financial health, evidenced by a notable increase of approximately 27% in e-commerce sales in Brazil during November, contributing to an enhanced profit margin that facilitates ongoing investments in products and services. Additionally, projections for a 35% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025 reflect the company's capacity to maintain a competitive edge while capitalizing on robust market trends.

MercadoLibre faces a negative outlook primarily due to several fundamental risks, including potential adverse regulatory changes, local currency depreciation against the dollar, and heightened competitive pressures that could affect both its e-commerce and fintech segments. The company also grapples with a fluid macroeconomic environment in Argentina, which adds uncertainty, compounded by weaker-than-expected performance during critical sales periods like Black Friday weekend, thereby impacting overall growth momentum. Furthermore, increased investments in response to competition are likely to restrict margin expansion, suggesting challenges for future profitability despite its significant market presence.