MEC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mayville Engineering is benefiting from a clearer cyclical recovery in its core truck exposure, as the North American Class 8 outlook has improved and the 2027 forecast has risen to ~301K units, supporting a business that derives nearly 40% of revenue from that end market. The company’s $100M equity raise strengthens liquidity, likely lowers debt carrying costs from nearly 6.5% interest on revolver borrowings, and provides flexibility to invest in Datacenters/Critical Power capacity and working capital. Even with pressure in Powersports and Construction/Access, management’s raised 2026 sales and Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $590M-$620M and $52M-$60M, plus 71% Datacenter-related growth and roughly 20% EBITDA growth expected across 2026 and 2027, support a constructive fundamental view.

Mayville Engineering is viewed negatively because over 50% of 2024 revenue comes from its top 5 customers, leaving earnings highly exposed if even one relationship weakens. Its core end-markets, including Heavy Trucks, Construction Equipment, Access Equipment, and Agriculture Equipment, are cyclical, so a step-down in demand could pressure revenues, margins, and cash flow. The outlook is further clouded by the Accu-Fab deal, one of its largest in the last 20 years, because integration risk, uncertain synergies, and legal or tariff-related disruptions could cause growth to fall short of expectations.