Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc has demonstrated significant therapeutic potential with Rezdiffra, successfully shifting approximately two-thirds of patients with compensated cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) to lower risk scores. The medication has shown robust real-world adherence and health-related quality of life improvements for patients, suggesting long-term benefits that extend beyond initial clinical trial results. Given the positive Key Opinion Leader (KOL) feedback and the increased penetration estimates for Rezdiffra among F2/F3 patients, Madrigal's revenue projections have been raised to $7.1 billion by 2035, indicating strong future growth potential.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, notably the risk of lower-than-expected peak sales due to potential competition and the need for broader support from healthcare prescribers and payers. Additionally, anticipated decreases in revenue for the first quarter of 2026, along with a hit on gross-to-net revenues from new contracting, signal potential difficulties in financial performance in the near term. Key risks include the possibility of failing to secure necessary FDA and EMA approvals, clinical trial setbacks, and funding challenges, all of which could further hinder the company's financial stability and growth prospects.