Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. has demonstrated significant therapeutic efficacy with its medication, Rezdiffra, which successfully shifted approximately two-thirds of patients with compensated cirrhosis and portal hypertension (CSPH) to lower risk categories, thereby validating its clinical utility. The company has also experienced stronger-than-anticipated real-world adherence and persistence, buoyed by Rezdiffra's demonstrated improvement in Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) scores for patients suffering from both early and cirrhotic MASH during long-term treatment. With adjusted expectations reflecting a potential revenue increase to $7.1 billion by 2035, Madrigal’s outlook remains favorable as it continues to capture new patients within a burgeoning market with high unmet needs.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals faces significant risks that contribute to a negative outlook, primarily stemming from potential lower-than-expected peak sales due to competition and a lack of support from the medical community and payers. Additionally, the forecasted revenue for 1Q26 is anticipated to decline, influenced by first-quarter dynamics and anticipated increases in gross-to-net costs associated with new contracts. Key risks include the possibility of failure to obtain regulatory approvals and the threat of competitive compounds, which could hinder the company’s ability to fund operations effectively.