MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB has demonstrated robust growth, with its customer base expanding by approximately 1,900 customers sequentially and 14% year-over-year, reaching over 54,500. The company operates in a promising non-relational database market projected to grow at a 22% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2025, indicating strong potential for future revenue generation. Additionally, the impressive 24% year-over-year increase in Atlas revenue, along with operating margins that exceeded consensus expectations, suggests a favorable financial trajectory for MongoDB moving forward.

The analysis outlines significant concerns regarding MongoDB's financial outlook, particularly emphasizing a decline in the annual recurring revenue (ARR) expansion rate, which fell from 120% to 118%, attributed to lower-quality workload acquisitions. Furthermore, the company anticipates a substantial drop in non-GAAP operating margins, projected at 9-10% for FY26, largely due to the absence of high-margin multiyear license revenue from FY25, coupled with increased spending on research and development and marketing efforts. Additionally, a forecasted decline in Enterprise Advanced and non-Atlas subscription revenue, along with total revenue guidance falling short of consensus estimates, contributes to a negative sentiment regarding MongoDB's stock performance.