MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB's customer base expanded significantly, adding approximately 1,900 customers sequentially and growing by 14% year-over-year, which reflects strong demand and adoption of its database solutions, reaching over 54,500 clients. The document-oriented database market is projected by Gartner to grow at a robust 22% compound annual growth rate through 2025, suggesting a favorable environment for MongoDB's continued expansion. Furthermore, the notable increase in Atlas revenue by 24% year-over-year, combined with exceeding expectations in non-Atlas revenue and improved operating margins in the fourth quarter, underscores MongoDB's strong financial performance and operational efficiency.

MongoDB is facing a downward trajectory in its financial performance, highlighted by a projected decline in non-GAAP operating margin from 15% to 9-10%, primarily due to the absence of $50 million in high-margin multiyear license revenue and increased R&D and marketing expenses. Additionally, the annual recurring revenue (ARR) expansion rate has decreased from 120% to 118%, attributed to lower-quality customer acquisitions and anticipated significant declines in Enterprise Advanced sales and overall revenue from prior fiscal year outperformance. Management's guidance for FY26 estimates total revenue between $2.24 billion and $2.28 billion, falling short of market consensus of $2.32 billion, further underpinning the negative outlook.