McKesson (MCK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

McKesson is well positioned because its dominant role in U.S. pharmaceutical wholesaling, combined with deepening vertical integration into patient support, data analytics, and direct-to-patient delivery, should help it capture a larger share of a market increasingly skewed toward specialty drugs. Specialty is expected to account for 55+% of total drug spending by 2028, and 7-8 out of 10 new drug approvals plus 20+ new cell and gene therapy therapies expected in 2026 alone should support higher growth and margin mix, while biosimilars could add about $250M of operating income by 2028. Operationally, its >99% order accuracy, 32% renewable electricity use, and 72% progress toward its FY2032 emissions target suggest a scalable, efficient platform that can convert volume into earnings even as regulatory and pricing pressures persist.

McKesson is facing a negative fundamental setup because its RxTS segment is highly exposed to GLP-1 prior authorizations, which represent 9.5%-11.5% of revenue, or about $560-$660M, just as 6% of large employers dropped GLP-1 coverage in 2026 and another 10% plan to do so in 2027. The company also faces structural pressure from the 2028 Maximum Fair Price negotiations on about $28B in Medicare drug spend, which could cut prices 40%-60% and compress already thin wholesaler economics and specialty margins. Even with specialty drug and biosimilar growth, McKesson likely needs mid-teens BioPharma Solutions growth or meaningful margin expansion to hit 11%-15% operating income growth, while litigation costs, compliance scrutiny, and supply chain margin compression add further downside risk.