Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats reported a significant financial turnaround, with 4Q25 Adjusted EBITDA reaching $19.7 million, up from a loss of $4.1 million in the previous year, reflecting a 9.5% margin increase aided by a strong volume recovery. The Malibu segment experienced a remarkable 114.0% year-over-year increase in net sales to $80.3 million, supported by a 40% increase in unit volume, as the company rebounded from previous de-stocking activities. Additionally, improved gross margins of 15.8%, up 790 basis points year-over-year, were driven by a more favorable model mix and reduced promotional activity, reinforcing the company's positive growth trajectory.

Malibu Boats is facing significant challenges, as evidenced by the company's guidance for fiscal year 2026, which includes expectations of flat to down mid-single-digit percentage net sales, reflecting a broader decline in retail activity and market demand for its products. Unit volumes in the Saltwater Fishing segment have dropped by 9.3% year-over-year, and the Cobalt segment has also seen a decrease of 11.4%, highlighting a concerning trend in consumer interest and dealer health within a market susceptible to economic fluctuations. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA margin guidance has been lowered to 8%-9%, significantly undercutting previous expectations of 7.9%, indicating potential deleveraging and tighter margins amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.