Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats displayed a noteworthy financial performance in its 4Q25 results, with net sales for the Malibu segment soaring 114% year-over-year to $80.3 million and a striking increase of 78.7% in unit volumes. Additionally, the company achieved a gross margin of 15.8%, an increase of 790 basis points compared to the previous year, which was largely attributed to a favorable model mix and reduced promotional activities across all segments. The overall strong performance across key segments, coupled with a positive market outlook due to seasonal demand peaks, reinforces the optimistic financial trajectory for Malibu Boats.

Malibu Boats is facing a challenging financial outlook due to a projected decline in retail activity, with guidance indicating a year-over-year sales decrease of roughly 10% for the second quarter and a potential fiscal year sales drop of flat to down mid-single digits. The company’s expected adjusted EBITDA margin has also been revised downwards to a range of 8%-9%, significantly lower than the previously estimated 7.9%, reflecting pressures from greater-than-anticipated deleverage and decreasing unit volumes, particularly in the Saltwater Fishing and Cobalt segments, which have seen declines of 9.3% and 11.4% year-over-year, respectively. Furthermore, adverse macroeconomic conditions, increased financing restrictions, and potential seasonal demand shocks add additional risks to Malibu's financial stability, signaling a challenging period ahead for the company.