MediaAlpha (MAX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MediaAlpha Inc. reported a 30% year-over-year increase in total transaction value, reaching approximately $589 million, with a notable growth in its P&C vertical, which surged by 42% year-over-year. The company's adjusted total revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $306.5 million, while contribution margin stood at 7.7% of total transaction value, reflecting a solid performance and profitability. Furthermore, with a favorable outlook for auto insurance carriers and an expanding addressable market driven by escalating premiums, MediaAlpha is well-positioned for sustained growth in customer acquisition spending.

MediaAlpha Inc has experienced a significant decline in its Health TV segment, with a reported decrease of approximately 40% year-over-year, adversely affecting both the under-65 health and Medicare markets. In the latest quarterly guidance, the company projected revenue of $280-300 million for Q4, which represents a 3.5% year-over-year decline at the midpoint and falls short of consensus estimates of around $308 million. The sensitivity of earnings estimates to changes indicates a heightened risk for volatility in stock valuation, as a 10% increase or decrease in earnings is closely tied to a corresponding 10% fluctuation in the company's price target.