LUCK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp has demonstrated positive financial momentum, with same-store food sales increasing by 2.5% year-over-year in F4Q25, reflecting the successful investments in enhancing food and beverage quality. The company's strategy to convert Bowlero locations to Lucky Strike-branded centers is on track, with management targeting 100 locations by the end of the calendar year, which is expected to boost visitation and pricing power, particularly in the challenging California market. Additionally, robust growth in season pass sales, which rose 37% year-over-year, alongside continued strong performance in food and beverage offerings, supports a favorable outlook for the company's overall financial performance.

Lucky Strike Entertainment Corp. faced significant challenges in F4Q25, with same-store sales declining by 4.1% year-over-year and contributing to an EBITDA headwind, particularly impacted by underperformance in California. The company's heavy reliance on the tech sector for its events business saw a downturn, further necessitating a reduction in FY26 EBITDA estimates due to anticipated financial drag from an acquisition and increased marketing expenditures aimed at brand-building. Management's decision to raise marketing spend from less than 1% to 2-3% of revenues, while essential for long-term strategy, creates immediate financial pressure in a competitive market struggling with sluggish sales trends.