Landstar System (LSTR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Landstar System demonstrates a positive outlook due to its increased focus on heavy-haul freight, which now constitutes 38% of total segment revenue, reflecting a strategic shift towards higher-value transport solutions. The company has seen an upward trajectory in heavy-haul revenues, rising 17% year-over-year through sustained demand, which has been supported by advancements in AI infrastructure and project-related freight. Additionally, improvements in BCO retention rates and a modest increase in truck counts indicate a stabilization in operations, further enhancing Landstar's prospects in the competitive logistics market.

Landstar System's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to declining truckloads, which are trending approximately 3% lower year-over-year, alongside flat revenue per load that indicates subdued demand and spot rates during the quarter. The company's reported adjusted EPS of $1.22 for 3Q25 fell short of both internal expectations and market forecasts, reflecting weaker performance in truck transportation revenue and a decline in "Van Equipment" revenue. Additionally, there is a significant downside risk associated with the possibility of a prolonged freight recession, which could adversely impact operating income and variable contribution margins.