LSPD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lightspeed Commerce is expected to experience accelerating revenue growth as it expands its flagship platforms and adds new modules across its customer base, particularly through the adoption of Lightspeed Payments in diverse regions and verticals. With a projected 35% year-over-year increase in research and development for capitalized software in F26, management is optimistic about driving more upsell opportunities and maintaining robust win rates in higher Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) locations. Additionally, improvements in GTV trends and anticipated mid-single digit growth in location adds during the second half of the fiscal year indicate strengthening operational momentum as the company's outbound sales strategy gains traction.

Lightspeed Commerce Inc faces a challenging economic environment, evidenced by negative same-store sales (SSS) trends in Q4 across its key verticals, particularly in North American hospitality, which is heavily influenced by consumer discretionary spending. The company is hindered by high competition leading to slower adoption rates, broader macroeconomic pressures contributing to decreased customer spending, and difficulties in achieving high attach rates for Lightspeed Payments. Additionally, there are concerns regarding the company's ability to attain profitability in the medium term, which further weighs on its financial outlook and leads to lowered revenue estimates.