LSPD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lightspeed Commerce is poised for success due to its strong financial performance, with a gross profit beat of 15.1% and better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA of $15.1mm. Customer and transaction revenue growth, along with healthy SSS trends, are also positive indicators for future success. Additionally, our Bull case assessment, with expected growth in customer CAGR, SaaS ARPU, and GTV, supports a Buy rating and $12 price target, as does our analysis of FY28E EV/EBITDA and bull/base/bear case analysis. However, there are potential risks such as macroeconomic, competition, regulatory, customer, and technology risks that could impact future performance.

Lightspeed Commerce is experiencing declining gross profit and worsening earnings quality due to its increase in self-origination loans and rise in expenses. With a "show me" story and potential risks of negative revisions if churn worsens and loan growth slows, a Hold rating and "somewhat cautious" outlook are warranted despite its solid 4QFY26 results and FY27 guidance, which includes accelerated location growth and an attractive medium-term outlook for mid-to-low teens growth with expanding margins.