Stride (LRN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Stride Inc has demonstrated significant financial growth, with free cash flow rising 45.0% to $89.1 million in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Additionally, cash flow from operations increased by 26.2% to $134.5 million, driven by a substantial 67.3% year-over-year rise in net income, even after accounting for fluctuations in working capital. Furthermore, the company achieved a record average total enrollment of 240,200, reflecting a robust 21.1% increase, surpassing both internal estimates and market consensus expectations.

Stride Inc. has revised its expected full-year revenue per enrollment to a decline of less than 1%, originally projected to be a 1-2% drop, indicating a modest improvement but still reflecting a lack of significant growth. Despite management's assertion that the company will surpass the low end of its fiscal year 2028 adjusted operating income and EPS targets three years ahead of schedule, this alone may not sufficiently allay concerns about fundamental revenue health. The company’s strong reliance on contractual agreements with school districts for revenue generation may pose risks, particularly in an evolving educational landscape where demand for alternative schooling programs faces increasing scrutiny and competition.