Stride (LRN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Stride Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reporting total revenue growth of 13% year-over-year to $621 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 1%. Enrollment revenue specifically saw a robust increase of 15% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the consolidated revenue per enrollment, which rose to $2,388, a 3.7% increase from the previous year. Additionally, a notable sequential enrollment increase of 12.4K, resulting in total enrollment growth of 11% year-over-year, alongside a 29.2% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $108.4 million, reinforces the company's solid growth and profitability outlook.

Stride Inc. has faced a mixed financial performance, with total enrollment falling slightly short of expectations and projections indicating that revenue per enrollment will remain flat year-over-year, negatively impacting the company's growth potential. Additionally, operational challenges such as login issues and performance slowdowns have led to lower enrollment conversion rates and higher withdrawal rates, further undermining future growth prospects. With FY26 revenue guidance falling below consensus expectations and a substantial decline in revenue from its Adult Learning segment, the company anticipates gross margin pressures which are likely to weigh down operating income for the year.