Lam Research (LRCX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lam Research is well positioned fundamentally because it holds the top share in etch and the #2 position in CVD, giving it leverage in two of the largest and fastest-growing wafer fab equipment categories, while its exposure to memory should benefit as memory rises from 30% of total WFE in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and 2026. Recent results support that view, with revenue of $8.2B beating guidance, Systems up 35% QoQ, NAND at $1.78B and 26% of revenue, and gross margin reaching a record 52.4%, showing both demand strength and operating leverage. Management’s CY27 WFE outlook above $200B, expectations for CSBG growth above 15%, and confidence in AI-driven 3D scaling across memory, foundry/logic, and packaging all reinforce durable upside.

Lam Research is facing a softer near-term setup despite an earnings beat, because C4Q26 revenue guidance of $8.6B implies only +5% QoQ growth and management flagged supply-chain constraints across gas delivery, cabling, and PCBs that are limiting upside. China is expected to be significantly lower this quarter, with domestic customer weakness offsetting strength from multinationals, while the business remains more exposed to memory spending that can be volatile versus leading-edge logic. Even with CY26 Systems up over 40% YoY and CSBG up over 30% YoY, the lower valuation multiple reflects sector-wide compression and a less favorable near-term demand mix.