Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lockheed Martin is supported by a record $292B backlog, strong 3Q26 bookings, and a 10-year F-35 framework agreement that secures at least 850 aircraft and supports production of 156 aircraft per year. Its 3Q26 revenue rose 11% to $20.7B, EPS was $7.97 versus $7.52 consensus, and free cash flow reached about $3.0B, reflecting stronger collections, working-capital discipline, and cash-tax tailwinds. The outlook is further strengthened by mid-teens MFC growth expectations for 5 years, rising missile and missile-defense demand, and long-term contracts that improve visibility across Aeronautics, RMS, and Space.

Lockheed Martin is facing a weaker fundamental outlook as slower growth in defense spending and rising concern over F-35 order activity threaten the core Aeronautics franchise, which still depends on the F-35 for upward of two-thirds of segment revenue. The loss of the FVL and NGAD programs, plus non-participation in F/A-XX, reduces visibility on future growth and raises questions about long-term program wins, even as it remains well positioned in missiles and could benefit from Golden Dome. Limited free cash flow growth, with 2026 FCF expected around $7.1B and a decline in 2027 amid pension and elevated capex, keeps sentiment pressured.