Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Eli Lilly is supported by a powerful growth engine in tirzepatide, with Mounjaro and Zepbound showing robust prescription trends, strong U.S. incretin demand, and expected continued expansion even amid modeled ASP declines. Its 2025-32 sales and EPS CAGRs were raised to 13% and 18%, both above the pharma industry average, while 2026 revenue estimates of $89.2B sit above the $85B-$87B guidance range, reinforcing operating momentum. Inluriyo’s updated label with Verzenio adds another catalyst, and the company’s newer product portfolio, diversified franchises, and productive R&D pipeline improve visibility into sustained growth.

Eli Lilly is viewed negatively because its once-dominant diabetes and obesity franchise now faces slowing growth assumptions, with Foundayo ramping more modestly than expected and FY26 estimates cut from $1.1bn to $800mn and WW ’27 lowered to $3.2bn. Competitive pressure is intensifying across core products, as oral CGRP drugs threaten Emgality, better positioning by Novartis’ Kisqali weighs on Verzenio, and greater-than-expected diabetes competition could erode the Lilly franchise. The outlook is also weakened by pipeline and execution risk, including potential regulatory delays, adverse or equivocal clinical data on orforglipron or retatrutide, patent expiration pressures such as Verzenio in 2031, and broader sector headwinds like FDA inefficiency or pharma tariffs.