Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Eli Lilly has demonstrated strong financial performance with a robust second quarter in 2025, surpassing both revenue and earnings expectations, which led to an increase in full-year guidance. The significant growth in Mounjaro sales, with a 60% quarter-over-quarter increase driven by successful launches in international markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and India, indicates strong demand and market expansion. Additionally, the imminent introduction of orforglipron, an innovative oral option in the GLP-1 market, is expected to enhance Lilly's product offerings and support ongoing revenue growth.

Eli Lilly's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to significant downside risks, including potential pricing and rebate pressures that could impact revenue stability. Furthermore, the trajectory for tirzepatide, one of its key products, has been disappointing, with concerns over its ability to demonstrate cardiac outcome benefits, potentially limiting its market appeal. Additionally, the launch performance of forglipron appears to be underwhelming, exacerbating competitive threats in a market already dominated by products such as Ozempic, which commands a substantial share of prescription volume in the United States.