LendingClub (LC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

LendingClub Corp has demonstrated a robust growth trajectory in the personal loan market, with a historical CAGR of approximately 14% over the past 15 years, positioning the company for a projected 32% year-over-year increase in loan originations in 2025. The expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of around 150% this year, coupled with anticipated margin expansions of 260 and 390 basis points in 2026 and 2027 respectively, suggests a strong upward trend in profitability, with potential EPS reaching over $2 by 2027. Furthermore, LendingClub's stable credit performance and an increasing CET1 capital ratio of 18.0% indicate solid capital generation capabilities while offering significant market share opportunities, particularly in the realm of credit card debt consolidation.

LendingClub Corp faces significant challenges due to a constrained marketplace for lending, resulting in credit provisions that fell 4% below consensus and an experienced loss rate of 2.85%, markedly lower than the long-term non-performing charge-off (NCO) levels of 4.5%-5%. The company's origination volumes have declined substantially compared to two years ago, indicating a cautious approach to credit underwriting amidst ongoing macroeconomic disruptions, which may hinder future earnings per share (EPS) performance. Additionally, the reduction in market share from approximately 10% to mid-single digits following credit tightening highlights difficulties in customer acquisition and overall portfolio stress.