Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Joby Aviation is viewed positively because it is advancing toward commercial eVTOL operations, including FAA’s eIPP in Dallas in September, with passenger flights by year-end and domestic passenger flight in ‘26 described as increasingly plausible. The fundamental thesis is supported by a projected revenue ramp from $122M in 2026 to $14.2B in 2036, gross margins expanding from 25% in 2026 to nearly 50% in 2035, and adjusted EBITDA turning positive above $300M in 2030 before reaching $7B in 2036. Investors also see premium-demand indicators through Blade ridership growth, while Joby’s software focus, Uber partnership, and regulatory progress may help justify a valuation premium despite manufacturing and certification execution risk.

Joby Aviation is facing a fundamentally difficult path to commercialization because management has already highlighted early production-ramp challenges for a novel aircraft platform, and it did not reaffirm prior guidance around building 4 aircraft per month in 2027. That hesitation implies execution risk remains high, especially as the company works through manufacturing complexity before meaningful scale can support its urban air taxi model and related revenues. The bear case also assumes regulatory approval is pushed out and that a high-profile industry safety event could reset certification timing, which would delay enthusiasm, suppress urban travel adoption, and weaken the credibility of longer-term EBITDA expectations.