JNJ Stock Forecast & Price Target

Johnson & Johnson has demonstrated strong operational sales growth of 11.5% in 4Q25, excluding the impact of generic competition for Stelara, indicating robust underlying performance. The impressive growth of key products, such as Rybrevant and Carvykti, which reported over 100% and 81% operational growth respectively, strengthens the company's revenue outlook and supports upward revisions in earnings estimates. With over half of total revenue generated in the U.S. and a focused approach following the divestment of its consumer business, Johnson & Johnson is well-positioned for continued success in its innovative medicine and medtech divisions.

Johnson & Johnson faces significant downside risks due to the erosion of patent exclusivity, which typically leads to rapid sales declines as competitors launch generic or biosimilar alternatives. Additionally, the company may encounter pressures from disappointing product launches and clinical trial results for key pipeline assets, as well as heightened concerns regarding drug pricing reform and increased litigation risks, particularly from ongoing product liability lawsuits. Furthermore, moderation in sales projections for several older products compounds the negative outlook, particularly following the failure of the posdinemab trial in early Alzheimer’s disease, affecting both revenue and investor confidence.