JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Jakks Pacific Inc. has demonstrated a commendable financial performance, with a 3.8% increase in net sales driven by successful new movie launches, indicating the effectiveness of its licensing strategies. The company’s international revenue growth of 4% for the first nine months of 2025, now comprising 25.4% of total revenue, showcases its expanding global footprint and market penetration. Furthermore, with a tangible book value per share of $19.33, representing a 7.9% premium to its current stock price, and a healthy working capital of $133.8 million alongside no debt, Jakks Pacific is well-positioned for sustainable growth and profitability moving forward.

The analysis presents a negative outlook for Jakks Pacific, primarily driven by a substantial decline in revenue, with 3Q sales plummeting 34.3% year-over-year to $211.2 million, which was significantly below consensus estimates. Operating performance was further hampered by a 500 basis point drop in adjusted operating margins and a 51% decline in EBITDA, highlighting the company's struggle to maintain profitability amid significant market pressures and challenging comparisons. Additionally, ongoing tariff impacts and a lack of compelling product tie-ins have created an uncertain environment, leading to expectations of continued declines in both sales and margins in upcoming quarters.