Itron (ITRI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Itron is supported by a stronger earnings profile, with 3Q2026 adjusted EPS of $1.94 and EBITDA of $114.5MM both materially ahead of expectations, helped by lower SG&A and better gross profit, while free cash flow reached about $96MM and net leverage fell to 1.9x. Its outlook is further reinforced by structural margin improvement, as Device Solutions gross margin stayed above 30% and Networked Solutions normalized toward 38%–40%, alongside ~25% ARR growth to $423MM and a recurring-revenue base that increasingly resembles software-like economics. The main remaining issue is execution on bookings, since TTM book-to-bill remains below 1.0x, but a large installed base, potential gas-cycle upside, and cross-sell opportunities in Resiliency Solutions support long-term upside.

Itron is facing a negative setup because 4Q2026 guidance for revenue of $621MM–$636MM and EPS of $1.70–$1.80 sits about 2% below FactSet at the midpoint, while SG&A is rising to roughly $100MM from about $84MM in 3Q. Bookings remain the central concern: 3Q bookings of $482MM missed the $535MM model, book-to-bill was only 0.80x, and TTM book-to-bill at 0.97x still trails the 1.0x threshold needed to support FY2026 momentum. The outlook is further pressured by potential integration delays at Urbint and Locusview, possible utility CapEx deferrals and adverse rate case outcomes that could slow AMI 2.0 deployments, and competitive risk from Landis+Gyr that may compress Networked Solutions margins and backlog conversion.