Inspired Entertainment (INSE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Inspired Entertainment is attractive because the market appears to be pricing in more regulatory damage than the business likely faces, with Brazil contributing only about $12M of annualized revenue and the share decline implying a much larger loss than that. Operationally, 3Q is expected to show $66.2M of revenue, $28.6M of EBITDA, and a 43.2% margin, while Interactive should drive a sequential EBITDA improvement and free cash flow is still expected to be positive at $6.2M. The company’s ability to generate cash and reduce debt, alongside a valuation of 3.5x 2026E EBITDA and 3.1x 2027E EBITDA, supports a positive outlook despite the Brazil ban and the UK duty overhang.

Inspired Entertainment is facing a deteriorating fundamental outlook because Brazil is now a direct earnings risk, with a betting ban removing about $3M of 4Q revenue and $2.6M of EBITDA, and potentially cutting 2027 Virtual Sports revenue from $41M to $29M and segment EBITDA from $30M to $20M. Management still expects 2026 EBITDA of about $112M at the low end of guidance, but the reduction is driven by Brazil rather than core operations, while pro forma 2026 EPS falls from $0.20 to $0.12 and 2027 FCF drops from $32M to $24M. The risk is compounded by uncertain timing on a legal or legislative reversal in Brazil, possible relicensing needs, and additional downside from a potentially higher UK Machine Games Duty that could pressure the Leisure-heavy revenue base.