I3 Verticals (IIIV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

i3 Verticals is supported by a sharper strategic focus on Public Sector software after divestitures that generated over $530M in gross proceeds, allowed the company to eliminate debt in fiscal 2025, and left it with 96%+ of revenue tied to software, services, and integrated payment solutions. Recurring revenue grew 8% Y/Y to $43.5M and software subscription revenue jumped 38% Y/Y to $12.8M, while the mix shift toward higher-margin subscription software, AI-driven deployment efficiency, and expected contract wins such as the West Virginia court system should support 4%-8% organic growth and 80-120 bps of annual margin expansion. With only 1.9x net leverage, $137M of YTD buybacks covering about 18% of shares outstanding at the end of fiscal 2025, and an EV of 8.5x-9.0x calendar 2027 EBITDA versus a 11x-12x historical average, the shares appear attractive relative to the company’s improving fundamentals and acquisition capacity.

i3 Verticals is facing a weakening fundamental backdrop because fiscal 3Q revenue of $53.1M missed forecasts, organic growth was roughly negative 2%, and non-recurring revenue fell 18% as implementation delays and softer professional services hit results. Management’s decision to cut fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance by 3% and 7% signals that growth is slowing while margin support cannot fully offset the lost top-line momentum. With recurring revenue growth masking shrinking non-recurring revenue, lower fiscal 2027 organic growth expectations, and shares already down nearly 30% YTD, the stock appears vulnerable to continued estimate cuts and limited near-term reacceleration.