Hologic (HOLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hologic's positive outlook is supported by anticipated high-single digit growth in its Molecular Diagnostics segment, driven by increased utilization of its Panther system, which has seen a substantial expansion in its installed base. The company's overall revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% from CY24E to CY26E, with potential for faster growth stemming from new product launches, margin improvements, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, operating efficiencies are expected to yield annual margin expansion of about 30 basis points, contributing to an estimated earnings growth of over 10% through share repurchases and ongoing organic revenue growth.

Hologic has revised its long-term revenue growth target from 5-7% to mid-single digits, indicating a significant slowdown that may see growth fall below this range in calendar year 2025. The company's bear case scenario anticipates revenue growth slowing to low-single digits, primarily due to declines in Diagnostics and Breast Health, coupled with concerns about deferred customer purchases awaiting new product launches, specifically Envision. Additionally, Hologic has adjusted its revenue growth estimates downward for FY25 and FY26 while maintaining earnings per share through buybacks and expense control, suggesting underlying weaknesses in operational performance.