Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson's revenue for the recent period reached $1.34 billion, reflecting a notable 17% year-over-year increase, with margins benefiting from a one-time impact related to its financial services division. The firm has achieved a significant foothold in the heavyweight motorcycle market, capturing approximately 37% of the domestic market share in 2024, and reports strong growth in various segments, including a 42.2% increase in Touring shipments and a 102.5% rise in Adventure Touring. Looking ahead, favorable retail sales trends and a healthier shipment pace are anticipated, positioning Harley-Davidson for continued outperformance, particularly with its lower-ASP bikes experiencing notable sales growth.

Harley-Davidson has experienced a significant financial downturn, highlighted by a 22.6% decrease in HDMC sales and a corresponding decline in revenue due to reduced motorcycle shipments. The company's gross profit margins have also suffered, with 2Q25 margins dropping to 28.6%, and 3Q25 margins further declining to 26.4%, impacted by unfavorable operating leverage, increased tariff costs, and adverse foreign exchange effects. Additionally, consolidated operating margins fell by 830 basis points year-over-year to 8.6%, underscoring the ongoing challenges within the business model and increasing operational costs.