Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson has demonstrated strong financial performance with a 17% year-over-year increase in revenues, reaching $1,341 million, and significant margin improvements driven by a favorable transaction from its financing segment. The company reported a substantial 32.7% increase in total motorcycle shipments in 3Q25 compared to the previous year, with notable gains in both Touring and Adventure Touring categories. Looking ahead to 2026, a positive trend is anticipated from the growing sales of lower-ASP bikes, particularly within the Softail segment, indicating a continued outperformance aligned with current demand dynamics.

The outlook for Harley-Davidson's stock appears negative due to a significant decline in revenue, marked by a 22.6% drop in HDMC sales as the company actively reduces motorcycle shipments. Additionally, the gross profit margins have deteriorated, with 2Q25 margins down to 28.6% and 3Q25 further declining to 26.4%, largely attributed to lower sales volumes, unfavorable operating leverage, increased tariff costs, and foreign exchange challenges. The consolidated operating margin has also weakened by 830 basis points year-over-year, falling to 8.6%, indicating ongoing financial pressures that could hinder future performance.