Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson is positioned for a positive financial outlook due to its significant market share, capturing approximately 37% of the heavyweight domestic motorcycle market in 2024, indicating strong brand loyalty and customer preference. The company’s recent strategic moves, including a transformational deal that reduces balance sheet risk and enhances financial flexibility, are likely to attract long-term investors focused on potential growth and recovery. Furthermore, accelerated share repurchases in the second half of the year are anticipated to generate renewed interest among investors, suggesting a promising turnaround at what is perceived as an undemanding valuation.

Harley-Davidson has experienced a significant decline in revenue, primarily attributed to a 22.6% decrease in motorcycle sales, as the company continues to reduce shipments into its distribution channel. The company's gross profit margin decreased to 28.6% in 2Q25, reflecting a drop of 350 basis points year-over-year, which is driven by lower sales volumes and negative operating leverage. Additionally, the consolidated operating margin declined substantially by 830 basis points to 8.6%, further complicating the financial outlook given the company's earnings missed consensus expectations during the quarter.