HNGE Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hinge Health, Inc. is positioned for substantial growth, as evidenced by an estimated 25% of its annual growth in 2024 being driven by improving yield, which is expected to continue to rise. The company's current penetration rate of approximately 3.5% among eligible users highlights significant opportunity for expansion compared to the 9% penetration typical of traditional physical therapy, suggesting a robust market expansion potential. Furthermore, Hinge Health's commitment to enhancing its services through tools like Hinge Connect, which increases engagement and utilization of its platform, reflects its ability to drive further organic growth and retain a high net revenue retention rate (116-117%) over the past two years.

Hinge Health Inc reported a 2Q25 EBIT margin of 19%, but management's guidance for mid-teens EBIT margins in the second half of 2025 suggests a decline in profitability. This outlook indicates that the expected EBIT margins for FY26 and FY27 are projected at 14.6% and 16.2%, respectively, both of which appear low compared to historical performance. The anticipated decrease in margins raises concerns about the Company's financial health and long-term growth potential, contributing to a negative outlook on its stock.