HLMN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hillman Solutions Corp has demonstrated a positive shift in customer traffic, with an increase of 0.1% in total daily traffic and a 0.4% uptick in weekend traffic in the early months of Q3 2025, contrasting sharply with previous declines. The strength of Hillman’s Hardware and Protective Solutions, particularly its performance with key retail customers such as Home Depot and Lowe’s, signals a robust outlook, bolstered by accelerating comparable sales. Furthermore, the current analysis indicates that anticipated growth is not solely reliant on a broad recovery in the home improvement sector, contributing to a heightened confidence in the company's future performance.

Hillman Solutions Corp's financial outlook is negatively impacted by mixed performance indicators amid a challenging home improvement environment, with the company projecting a consensus EBITDA growth of only 5.6% for FY26, contrasting sharply with the broader market's anticipated decline of 0.7% in similar sectors. Although two of its core segments, Hardware Solutions and Robotics and Digital Solutions, showed organic growth of 4.4% and 2.3%, respectively, the decline in Protective Solutions by 4.3% raises concerns about overall demand sustainability and profitability. The combination of a choppy earnings environment and specific segment weaknesses suggests a precarious position for Hillman Solutions as it navigates future market developments.