Home Depot (HD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Home Depot stands as the world's largest home improvement specialty retailer, with a robust product offering exceeding 30,000 items in-store and 1 million online, facilitating significant sales growth. The company's strategic acquisitions, including Interline Brands and the recent partnerships with SRS and GMS, have bolstered its presence in the MRO market and expanded its distribution capabilities, contributing to projected sales growth ranging from 2.5% to 6% in the coming years. Additionally, with a total addressable market of $1.1 trillion and a relatively low market share of 15%, Home Depot is well-positioned to capture increased demand in the complex pro market, poised for substantial growth amidst a housing market recovery.

Home Depot has maintained its 2025 guidance but is projecting a significant decline in adjusted EPS by approximately 5% to $14.48, alongside a downward revision of the 2026 EPS estimate to $15.00, reflecting concerns over reduced consumer demand and retail sales. The company faces structural challenges with housing turnover dipping to around 2.9%, well below the long-term average of approximately 4.1%, which contributes to a less favorable operating environment. Additionally, margin pressures from expanding into wholesale distribution, increased labor costs, and capital investments further hinder the ability to return to previous peak margins, indicating an adverse financial outlook for the retailer.