HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare has demonstrated a robust financial performance with a same-facility revenue increase of 9.2% year-over-year, primarily driven by a solid 2.4% growth in adjusted admissions and a notable 7.1% rise in inpatient revenue per admission. The organization's strong payer mix, particularly in Medicare and Commercial admissions, has positively influenced revenue streams, while management's revision of the 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $15.25-15.65 billion indicates confidence in sustained operational strength. Additionally, a significant uptick in outpatient surgeries, noted as the first positive growth in seven quarters, further underscores the potential for continued revenue expansion.

The financial outlook for HCA Healthcare is tempered by a projected headwind of 5% to its earnings estimates for 2026, as well as a valuation adjustment that reflects a contraction in the enterprise multiple to 9.25x, indicating cautious expectations for future performance. The company's total debt to LTM EBITDA ratio improved slightly to 2.9x, but this remains in a context where leverage has been formally targeted in a narrower range, suggesting ongoing concerns about fiscal stability. Additionally, the anticipated revenue growth of 3.9% for 2026 falls below the low end of the company's long-term growth outlook, highlighting challenges amidst a volatile economic environment.