HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare demonstrated a strong performance in its latest financial results, with a year-over-year increase of 9.2% in same-facility revenue, driven by a notable 2.4% growth in adjusted admissions and a 7.1% rise in inpatient revenue per admission. The company's encouraging payer mix, bolstered by substantial increases in Medicare and Commercial volumes, contributed significantly to revenue growth, leading to an upward revision of adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 to a range of $15.25 billion to $15.65 billion. Furthermore, the firm achieved its first positive outpatient surgery comp in seven quarters, indicating a recovery in this segment, which is likely to enhance HCA's operational profitability moving forward.

HCA Healthcare's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a total debt to LTM EBITDA ratio that, although slightly improved at 2.9x, remains a concern given the ongoing headwinds to earnings expectations, which now assume a 5% reduction for 2026. The anticipated multiple contraction to 8.0x further exacerbates concerns about the company's ability to achieve its growth targets, particularly with a revised EBITDA growth estimate of only 3.9% for 2026, which is below its long-term growth outlook. Additionally, the company's operational expenses, while slightly better than expectations, reflect a broader trend of rising costs that could challenge profitability moving forward.