HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare has demonstrated robust growth metrics, with a notable 3Q25 same-facility revenue increase of 9.2%, fueled by a 2.4% rise in adjusted admissions and strong performance in both Medicare and commercial segments. The organization experienced a significant 7.1% year-over-year increase in inpatient revenue per admission, indicating effective pricing strategies and a favorable payer mix, which contributed to financial stability. Additionally, HCA raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $15.25-15.65 billion, reflecting core operational strength and higher-than-anticipated supplemental payment receipts, which collectively signal a positive trajectory for the company.

HCA Healthcare's financial outlook reflects several concerns contributing to a negative assessment, particularly following a sequential reduction in its total debt to LTM EBITDA ratio to 2.9x in 3Q25, which still hints at elevated leverage levels. The company's guidance for a 5% decline in 2026 earnings estimates, coupled with a projected multiple contraction to 8.75x, suggests underlying revenue challenges that may not align with its historical performance or growth expectations. Additionally, persistent operational headwinds, particularly in labor costs and professional fees, alongside the uncertain regulatory environment surrounding Medicaid state-directed payments, could further strain profitability and compromise HCA's ability to sustain its current market valuation.