HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare's financial position appears robust, ending the year with $1.04 billion in cash and an impressive $5.78 billion available under credit facilities, coupled with an 8.3% dividend increase reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns. The company anticipates a solid 7.6% growth in EBITDA, supported by consistent volume growth in both ambulatory and inpatient admissions, while professional fees—accounting for a significant portion of operating expenses—are expected to continue increasing, driven by key service lines such as anesthesiology and radiology. Furthermore, with a planned capital expenditure increase to $5.0 billion-$5.5 billion for 2026, HCA is positioning itself for expansion in high-acuity services and enhancing network capabilities, which underlines a proactive growth strategy.

HCA Healthcare's outlook is negatively impacted by lower-than-expected growth in same-store revenue per adjusted admission, which was reported at 2.9%, falling short of projections and consensus estimates. The organization's expectation of a significant decline in Medicaid funding, ranging from $250 million to $450 million, combined with anticipated 30% reductions in care utilization for uninsured patients, signals potential revenue challenges. Additionally, a decrease in adjusted EBITDA expectations for 2026 further compounds these concerns, highlighting two significant headwinds that may affect the company's financial stability moving forward.