Horizon (HBNC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Horizon Bancorp demonstrates a favorable financial outlook supported by an increased earnings and profitability forecast, leading to a rise in target price multiples to 10.0x for 2026 estimates and significant upside potential relative to tangible book value. The company's return profile is positively impacted, indicating a notable increase of approximately 50 basis points in return on assets, resulting in a stronger, cleaner balance sheet. These factors contribute to an overall positive return projection, with expectations of substantial total returns within a base case scenario.

Horizon Bancorp is facing a negative outlook primarily due to reduced earnings and profitability forecasts, which may exert downward pressure on its valuation. The anticipated slowdown in loan growth, with estimates at low single digits compared to prior expectations of approximately 6%, alongside slower margin expansion and higher expenses, reflects significant challenges ahead. Furthermore, elevated provisioning needs due to weaker credit trends could further hinder the company's financial performance, contributing to an expected return of -13% under the downside scenario.