Horizon (HBNC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Horizon Bancorp has demonstrated a strong earnings and profitability outlook, leading to a modest increase in price target multiples to 10.0x for 2026 estimates, suggesting significant upside potential. The company shows a notable enhancement in its return profile, with an estimated ~50 basis points boost to return on assets (ROA), contributing to a clearer and stronger balance sheet. Additionally, the adjustments in earnings forecasts indicate a projected total return of approximately 26% in the base case scenario, further supporting a positive outlook on the stock.

Horizon Bancorp's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to reduced earnings and profitability expectations, which have led to downward pressure on its valuation. The bank's projected slower loan growth in the low single digits, coupled with increased pricing pressure on deposits and reliance on borrowings, is anticipated to weaken margins and net interest income. Additionally, rising expenses (projected at 6%-7% year-over-year) related to investments in human capital and technology, alongside higher provisioning for non-performing loans, further exacerbate the bank's financial challenges.