Groupon (GRPN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Groupon Inc. is poised for significant growth in the latter half of 2025, with expectations for substantial increases in billing, revenue, and AEBITDA, driven by its effective business model that connects consumers with local merchants. The company has demonstrated a strong capacity to grow bookings, optimize operating costs, and effectively convert revenue into cash, indicating operational efficiency and financial resilience. Additionally, despite recent market fluctuations, Groupon's stock showed remarkable performance, more than doubling during a challenging period for the NASDAQ composite, highlighting investor confidence and demand for its services.

Groupon Inc. faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily due to anticipated declines in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, with management guidance indicating a revenue decrease of 5% to 7.5% and adjusted EBITDA projected between $7 million to $10 million. The company’s inability to achieve a rebound in revenue, coupled with potentially higher marketing and SG&A expenses relative to revenue, may further strain its financial performance. Additionally, concerns over cash flow adequacy and debt refinancing pressures persist, even with recent rights offerings that have somewhat alleviated this risk.