GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co is recognized as a well-positioned player in the consumer packaging sector, with a long-term EBITDA valuation projected to rise from approximately 8x to 9-10x. The company is poised for a significant positive free cash flow inflection, expected to exceed $300 million starting in 2026, which is anticipated to facilitate share buybacks and enhance shareholder value. Additionally, Graphic Packaging has demonstrated stable to upward volume growth driven by its tuck-in acquisition strategy, supplemented by potential catalysts such as margin expansion and improving trends in U.S. consumer packaged goods and food packaging markets.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co has revised its EBITDA estimates downwards for Q3, FY25, and FY26 due to persistent weakness in food volumes and ongoing price/cost pressures, now projecting $380 million, $1.435 billion, and $1.5 billion, respectively. The company has experienced a decline in volumes and a contraction in certain product categories, with an anticipated volume decrease of -2% or worse in the second half of the fiscal year. Additionally, inflationary pressures on consumer packaged goods, an oversupply of bleached paperboard hindering price increases, and increased capital expenditures are expected to extend the deleveraging timeline and limit capital returns.