GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co exhibits a positive outlook primarily due to its steady volume growth and effective tuck-in acquisition strategy, which is expected to enhance market reach in growth categories and regions. The company also has the potential to generate annual productivity enhancements of $50–70 million, translating into approximately 5–6% EBITDA growth, alongside expectations of 10% free cash flow growth and double-digit earnings per share growth, even with flat volume dynamics. Additionally, Graphic Packaging is positioned to offset rising commodity input costs through strategic pricing and volume/mix advantages, supporting stable pricing and margins in an increasingly consolidated packaging market.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co has revised its EBITDA projections downward, anticipating total EBITDA of $380 million for Q3, $1.435 billion for FY25, and $1.5 billion for FY26, reflecting a decline attributed to ongoing soft food volumes and significant price/cost pressures. The company has observed a downward trend in volume from flat in July to a decline of -2% in August and possibly continued softness in September, compounded by a slight decrease in food unit sales as reported by Circana data. Furthermore, challenges related to inflation affecting consumer packaged goods, an oversupply of bleached paperboard limiting pricing power, and increased capital expenditures pose heightened risks to the company’s financial performance and potential free cash flow for FY26.