GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co is recognized as a well-positioned consumer packaging company, transitioning from a commodity paper manufacturer, with an expected long-term EBITDA multiple expansion from approximately 8x to 9-10x. The company is projected to achieve a significant positive free cash flow inflection point exceeding $300 million starting in 2026, which is anticipated to enhance shareholder returns primarily through buybacks. Additionally, Graphic Packaging has consistently demonstrated flat to slightly increasing volume growth due to its strategic tuck-in acquisitions, along with potential margin expansion and positive trends in the US beverage and food packaging markets.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co has revised its EBITDA projections downward for Q3/FY25/FY26 to $380 million, $1.435 billion, and $1.5 billion, primarily due to ongoing weak food volumes and persistent price/cost pressures. Recent data indicates a decline in sales, particularly in certain center-aisle categories, with overall volume performance expected to worsen in the second half of the fiscal year, reflecting a broader trend of sluggish consumer packaged goods activity. Additionally, the company is addressing inventory challenges by proactively reducing production, which has already led to significant EBITDA impacts, while ongoing oversupply in the bleached paperboard market constrains its pricing power and may prolong its deleveraging timeline.