GPI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Group 1 Automotive has demonstrated significant financial growth, with revenue reaching $19.9 billion in 2024, augmented by the strategic acquisition of the Inchcape UK deal, which is expected to contribute an additional $2.7 billion in annual revenue. The company's operational metrics also reflect positive trends, with aftersales and F&I revenues increasing by 12% and 11%, respectively, leading to approximately 300 basis points of operating leverage. Moreover, restructuring efforts are driving margin improvements, evidenced by a record performance in 1Q25 with a sales increase of 6.5%, indicating a robust operational outlook moving forward.

Group 1 Automotive is experiencing a negative financial outlook, with projected AEBITDA declining by 5% to $990 million due to operating de-leverage amid significant industry demand drawdowns exceeding 20% from peak levels. Additionally, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 11.4% to $39.21, while EBITDA decreased by 8% year-over-year, presenting a low margin of 4.6%. Although same-store performance showed some resilience, the overall financial metrics indicate mounting challenges for the company's profitability and growth prospects.