Genuine Parts (GPC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Genuine Parts Company demonstrates a positive outlook due to anticipated improvement in U.S. trends in the second half of the year, driven by tariff-induced inflation in same-SKU items and increased repair and maintenance activities resulting from rising new and used car prices. The company's industrial distribution segment has shown resilience, with a notable year-over-year increase in EBITDA margins, signaling an earnings leverage that enhances overall profitability. Furthermore, the strategic shift towards a higher proportion of company-owned stores positions Genuine Parts to capitalize on the expected accelerated demand, allowing for greater control over its product offerings and further financial gains.

Genuine Parts has faced significant pressure in its automotive segment, with Auto EBITDA margins declining approximately 110 basis points year-over-year to 8.6% mainly due to increased labor, rent, and supply chain costs. Despite holding steady in the industrial sector, with EBITDA margins flat year-over-year, the company has still lowered its Auto EBITDA margin guidance for 2025 to flat or slightly down, reflecting broader market uncertainties. Furthermore, the decline in industrial comps by 0.1% suggests ongoing challenges, raising concerns about potential share losses and overall financial performance.